Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 3 Junior Caminero 3B
- 4 Jake Fraley RF
- 5 Ben Williamson 2B
- 6 Cedric Mullins CF
- 7 Nick Fortes C
- 8 Chandler Simpson LF
- 9 Carson Williams SS
- 1 Brice Turang 2B
- 2 Luis Rengifo 3B
- 3 William Contreras C
- 4 Christian Yelich LF
- 5 Gary Sánchez DH
- 6 Jake Bauers 1B
- 7 Brandon Lockridge CF
- 8 Sal Frelick RF
- 9 Joey Ortiz SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.76 vs actual lineup 3.80
- Player execution −1.80 R/G Players fell 1.80 short of the lineup's 3.80 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.76 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Fortes HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.13 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.68 vs actual lineup 3.82
- Player execution +2.18 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.82 projection by 2.18 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.32 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Rengifo 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 3.7 — actual was 2 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.