Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds DH
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 5 Jared Triolo SS
- 6 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 7 Nick Gonzales 3B
- 8 Henry Davis C
- 9 Jake Mangum LF
- 1 Francisco Lindor SS
- 2 Juan Soto LF
- 3 Bo Bichette 3B
- 4 Jorge Polanco DH
- 5 Luis Robert Jr. CF
- 6 Brett Baty 1B
- 7 Marcus Semien 2B
- 8 Carson Benge RF
- 9 Luis Torrens C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| NYM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.14 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.15 vs actual lineup 3.01
- Player execution +0.99 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.01 projection by 0.99 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.85 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Reynolds 0-for-5 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.15 vs actual lineup 4.22
- Player execution −1.22 R/G Players fell 1.22 short of the lineup's 4.22 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Bichette 0-for-5 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 4.2 — actual was 4 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.