Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 3 Jake Fraley RF
- 4 Junior Caminero 3B
- 5 Cedric Mullins CF
- 6 Chandler Simpson LF
- 7 Carson Williams SS
- 8 Richie Palacios 2B
- 9 Hunter Feduccia C
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera C
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Masyn Winn SS
- 5 Nolan Gorman DH
- 6 Ramón Urías 3B
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Jordan Walker RF
- 9 Victor Scott CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.16 vs actual lineup 3.13
- Player execution +1.87 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.13 projection by 1.87 (scored 5)
- Game variance +1.84 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Fraley 0-for-5 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost +0.18 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.85 vs actual lineup 4.67
- Player execution +1.33 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.67 projection by 1.33 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Winn 0-for-4 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.8 — actual was 5 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.