Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jared Triolo SS
- 2 Ryan O'Hearn 1B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 5 Nick Gonzales 3B
- 6 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 7 Nick Yorke RF
- 8 Joey Bart C
- 9 Jake Mangum CF
- 1 Francisco Lindor SS
- 2 Juan Soto LF
- 3 Bo Bichette 3B
- 4 Jorge Polanco 1B
- 5 Luis Robert CF
- 6 Brett Baty DH
- 7 Marcus Semien 2B
- 8 Carson Benge RF
- 9 Francisco Alvarez C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.17 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.82 vs actual lineup 4.65
- Player execution −2.65 R/G Players fell 2.65 short of the lineup's 4.65 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −2.82 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Mangum 2-for-5 from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.60 vs actual lineup 3.61
- Player execution +0.39 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.61 projection by 0.39 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.40 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lindor 0-for-5 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.6 — actual was 2 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.